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In a blog post, Paul Krugman derides Alan Simpson for spreading “zombie lies”, in particular the statement that life expectancy when social security was enacted was only 63. Krugman quickly says: “life expectancy at age 65, which is what matters, was almost 80 for women and 78 for men.” But life expectancy at 65 is not the only thing that matters—if we’re trying to keep the system solvent, the proportion of people who live to age 65 to begin with compared with those in the workforce is important. Life expectancy at birth is a proxy for this. Krugman’s smart enough to know this.

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Raymond Davis’s case was returned to a lower court by a Pakistani court of appeals today. The appeals court refused to rule on whether or not he has diplomatic immunity. The New York Times, and other American publications, initially held back reporting that Davis is a CIA contractor after he shot and killed two people on January 27th. The Times’s ombudsman explained that decision here, explaining that the paper didn’t want to repeat charges that had been made in the Pakistani press. The Times all but spelled out that Davis was a spy, saying, “his exact duties have not been explained, and the reason he was driving alone with a Glock handgun, a pocket telescope and GPS equipment has fueled speculation in the Pakistani news media.” That sentence says, without saying, that Davis was not, shall we say, a desk jockey. Continue reading

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I know it doesn’t launch for over a month, but NASA plans to move Endeavour to the launch pad tonight. Just made me think that if the shuttle program really had been like this (Discovery landed yesterday) with one shuttle taking off as soon as the previous one landed (the original idea was for a launch a week!) we’d be seeing a very different world in space. Of course, it was clear that it would never have worked. An excuse to link to Gregg Easterbrook’s famous, and awesome 1980 story.

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I suppose not. Much like when Tim Russert died, the encomia come in quick and heavy, the deceased being by all accounts basically nice and decent men, friends of and to the establishment. But this makes neither of them into more than perfectly good conveyors of consensus. There’s no shame in that, particularly, but let’s not make either into more than they were. Continue reading

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Apropos of the New York Times article about a lawsuit in Brooklyn over bicycle lanes, John Cassidy writes in support of the lawsuit, which claims that the city’s addition of bike lanes is “arbitrary and unfair”. Cassidy’s argument is that the bicycle lanes make it easier to bike, and harder to drive (and park). Well, yes. That’s precisely the point! He takes us on an idyll of youthful hungover bicycling, returning to his house shaking. Now, he says dismissively, “cyclists want it easy.” Again, is it evidence of some slothful decline of the west that bicyclists lobby to make cycling easier? Continue reading

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So I’m at a conference on the future of energy, and John Engler, president of the Business Roundtable and former governor of Michigan, was talking. He was speaking about the need for better education and a better workforce when he said the following:

“Sometimes if you’re going to go from laboratory to commercial, who are the technical people who are going to work in that high tech environment with the proper controls–the right statistical and analytical ability to make sure this is not, uh, you know, reducing errors, this is zero error, zero tolerance for error, manufacturing has to get it right and that takes skilled people.”

Now, “technical people” with the right “statistical and analytical ability” would know that aiming for zero error in a manufacturing process is a very silly and costly thing to do. At some point, catching the marginal error is going to take more effort than it is worth, in time and money. It doesn’t take super-advanced training in probability theory to see this. Making a mistake like this in quite literally in the same breath as calling for better education I suppose proves his point, but not in the way Engler intended.

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Fall in Love with a New Book and Save 30%” is a really terrible subject line in an e-mail. Falling in love with a book is ipso facto a great and heady intellectual adventure. Saving 30% can be satisfying too. (I’d rather pay 70 cents for that orange juice than an even buck, sure.) But something as [melo]dramatic as falling in love shouldn’t be, even in your sales pitch, put in the same breath as a reasonably good sale. It’s like a guy telling his best friend he just met this wonderful girl he wants to marry because he realized she’s a cheap date.

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A thoughtful and vivid report from Tahrir Square by Graeme Wood: Paranoia Strikes Among Egypt’s Protesters: A Day and Night in Tahrir – Graeme Wood – International – The Atlantic.

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  • Year-End Bonus: More Scientist-on-Scientist Smackdown
    31 December 2010
    A) James Fallows is very good.B) The blogging medium, which allows him to quote at length from many people--an approach that would not fly in a newspaper article on the same subject--is also kind of great.
    I've had a change of heart. After announcing previously that I would forgo additional back-and-forth from scientists about the hazards, or safety, of new TSA scanning machines, I've received enough interesting mail that I think I should offer at least one more installment. The two original disputants -- a physics professor, and a biophysicist/enzymologist -- were both skeptical of the TSA's overall screening strategy. But they differed on which...
  • Shadow Wars Get Big Bucks in Last-Minute Defense Bill
    22 December 2010
    Fighting (or pretending to fight) al-Qaida on behalf of the United States? Congress is your private Santa.
  • Boxing Day Special: A Physicist Opts-Out
    26 December 2010
    OK, back to business. A physics professor from a college in the East replies to this item, in which a software engineer explained why new "enhanced" backscatter-radiation TSA machines can't be assumed to be safe. The physics professor writes:There is no such thing as a risk-free dose of ionizing radiation. The federal government studied this using beagles right after World War II and found no safe dosage level. And for good reason.The reason Albe...
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  • The Microdistilling Myth
    27 December 2010
    Andrew*/flickr In a recent profile of New York-area micro-distillers, The New York Times praised the way that, like craft charcuteries and urban apiaries, these small-bore labors of love churned out a better product than their larger, more established cousins. "Virtually all craft distillers use small pot stills rather than the huge column stills used by the industry giants," wrote author Toby Cecchini. "Though more labor-intensive, these more...
  • Frank Bessac
    23 December 2010
    in which buckle is swashed.
    Spy turned anthropologist who made an epic journey to Tibet as the CIA plotted against the Russian A-Bomb and Chinese communists
  • At Kaplan University, 'Guerrilla Registration' Leaves Students Deep In Debt
    23 December 2010
    Tragic & Infuriating
    Arlen Castillo had just begun an online associate's degree program at Kaplan University when a family emergency forced a change of plans. Her mother in Florida learned she needed extensive surgery that entailed months of recuperation.
  • Hacker’s challenge
    25 October 2010
    Peter Hacker tells James Garvey that neuroscientists are talking nonsense Peter HackerSo long as people read Wittgenstein, people will read Peter Hacker. It’s hard to imagine how his work on the monumental Analytical Commentary on Wittgenstein’s Philosophical Investigations could possibly be superseded. He spent nearly twenty years on that project (ten of them in cooperation with his friend and colleague Gordon Baker), following in Wittgenste...
  • The diplomat, the bishop, the bomber, and the fruit bat
    25 November 2010
    What speech acts are permitted under the various restrictive laws current in the British Isles, and what penalties accrue to people who step outside the bounds laid down by the law? As I have often mentioned here before, the UK has no real constitutional guarantee of free speech, so a lot of things that any American would take to be unquestionably expressible turn out to bring down fines or imprisonment if you say them in the UK. But since all...
  • The Asian Challenge to Jon Stewart's Dominance
    01 November 2010
    Yes, of course, I'm scare-mongering. As with many other "imminent threats" from the unstoppable Chinese and their East Asian neighbors, the idea that Comedy Central will soon lose its #1 rank in politics-based humor is an exaggeration. And yet....!! You can't minimize what the NMA ("Next Media Animation") group in Taiwan could be capable of. They've made an art form out of campy but compulsively watchable CGI reenactments of events in the news, w...
  • Airport Security Reports: 'Where Are the Airlines?'
    15 November 2010
    Really, I'm not trying to overdo this, but reports keep flowing in 1) This is being sent from the United/Air New Zealand holding area at Sydney airport, waiting for the flight to Los Angeles. Sydney airport security system: simple metal detector, shoes kept on, no pat down of any sort. Background anxiety: often at the last minute, there's an extra security surprise inspection for passengers on flights to the US. Will know one way or another soon....
  • Where Did Our Debt Come From?
    16 November 2010
    Chuck Spinney, who spent his career as a budget analyst in the Pentagon -- that's him, on the cover of Time for his defense-reform work in the Reagan era -- has an idea about the answer. The green in the chart below shows periods when America's overall federal debt burden shrank; red, when it grew. Spinney, by the way, is no one's idea of a standard liberal. He's more a deficit hawk than anything else, meaning both that he's hard-line against exc...
  • Lasting Press Conferences
    09 November 2010
    The first video is particularly worth watching...
    How much does a midterm decide? Let’s look back at 1962—not at the national level, where Kennedy’s Democrats held the Senate and House, before his Administration came to an awful end, but at California, and the governor’s race between Richard Nixon, coming off of his defeat in the 1960 Presidential race, and Pat Brown (the father of Jerry). Here is one of the ads Nixon ran; it is disconcertingly jangly: And here he is, after his loss,...
  • Think Nobody in the White House Knows How to Explain Economic Policy?
    30 September 2010
    That's what I have often feared. Here's an exception. Austan Goolsbee, new head of the Council of Economic Advisers, with a visual aid to explain the difference between the Republican and Democratic proposals for extending the Bush-era tax cuts: That's a static screen shot; embedded player with his full two-minute presentation from the White House site, below. One way to look at it: what has taken so long? Another way: at least they're starting...
  • Remembering Murray Sayle
    23 September 2010
    Last weekend, an e-mail from Jennifer Sayle, in Sydney: Dear Rick Just to let you know that Murray passed away peacefully in his sleep at 2.30 am this morning (Sunday). He had had a good life and it was a great relief that he wasn’t in pain or distressed—I visited him yesterday afternoon for a few hours and he was quite perky, if a bit tired…. love Jenny Murray Sayle (January 1, 1926-September 19, 2010) was a wonder—a journalist of P...
  • Knowledge vs. Pedantry
    09 September 2010
    Sam Abrams, reply by Tony Judt To the Editors: It is truly discouraging to see, in a column by Tony Judt about sensitivity to language, “inchoate” used as a synonym for “chaotic” [“Words,” NYR, July 15]. Although this solecism is quite common, it still pains the ears of those few of us who are sensitive to the etymological resonances of English words. Didn’t Professor Judt learn Latin at the fancy school he went to? “We ......
  • A Date That Will Live in Oblivion
    01 September 2010
    What President Obama called the end of the combat mission in Iraq is a meaningless milestone, constructed almost entirely out of thin air, and his second Oval Office speech marks a rare moment of dishonesty and disingenuousness on the part of a politician who usually resorts to rare candor at important moments. The fifty thousand troops who will remain in Iraq until the end of next year will still be combat troops in everything but name, because...
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How on earth do you write a long (and in many ways, very good) essay about the late night talk show without mentioning Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert? Seriously.

Dick Cavett and the battles for late night : The New Yorker.

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Waiting for the December Atlantic to arrive, and reading some of it on-line. There’s a very strange article, a caring attack on Freeman Dyson.

The scientific infelicities are few, like this, surely accidental one:

Their schedule had them landing on Mars by 1965 and Saturn by 1970.

and there’s some smooth writing in the story, including this gem, about the asteroid Eros:


The Erotic climate is not perfect.

But the article, which is meant to be a critique of Dyson’s controversial position on climate change, never really engages his arguments. (Hence the absence of scientific infelicity; there is an outright absence of discussions of science.) Now I’m pretty skeptical of Dyson’s arguments myself, but just calling him smart, but crazy, is not the way to go:


The question that phrases itself now, in the minds of many, is: how could someone as smart as Freeman Dyson be so dumb?

It seems there was raw material here both for an interesting story about Dyson (who is a fascinating figure) and an examination of good-faith criticisms of mainstream thought on climate change. There are clearly people with a vested interest (ahem, Exxon, etc.) in critiquing the scientific mainstream; there are also clearly thoughtful people, like Dyson, who criticize it on other grounds. Unlike the first class of “skeptics” the skeptics, sans quotation marks, should, at the very least, have their arguments examined in good faith, in a venue like this.

The Danger of Cosmic Genius – Magazine – The Atlantic.

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From Timothy Noah’s excellent series on inequality. The poorest 20% of Americans saw their incomes grow 6 times faster under Democratic presidents than Republican presidents.

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In which a robot helicopter wanders around Washington DC. The tough question is what happens when these things become deliberately autonomous.

Navy Drone Wanders Into Restricted Airspace Around Washington – NYTimes.com.

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Not that this is a good thing, but would’ve been much worse news with different punctuation….

Mexico: City’s Mayor Is Kidnapped

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“The odds of you being in Reykjavik are not great,” says its new mayor. Continue reading

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    This is very sad, but also very interesting. There’s something touching about the earnestness of the government’s reaction. And a 111-year old mummy, upstairs for the sake of fraud, is too strange for words.

    Japan, Checking On Its Oldest, Finds Many Gone – NYTimes.com

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    Sobering & unsentimental..

    A Global Graveyard for Dead Computers in Ghana – Slide Show – NYTimes.com.

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    Kind of interesting musings on how journalists assimilate information. Michaels suggests we “widen our aperture”, which would of course lead to narrower depth of field, rather than wider. He’s maybe optimistic in supposing that journalism can do much to anticipate events, rather than capture them in retrospect. But his central point that 24/7 news doesn’t necessarily bring timeliness is a good observation…

    Fog of war: What are we missing? – USATODAY.com

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